Government Meterologist's 2:00 PM CDT Predictions for Hurricane Rita

Reconnaissance data just received indicates that EXTREMELY DANGEROUS Hurricane Rita is currently going through a “concentric eye-wall replacement cycle.” This is a natural process, characteristic of all super-intense hurricanes. It cyclically occurs in the life cycle of these powerful Storms but the timing is not predictable. Therefore, this accounts for the so called “weakening” of Rita.

Latest central pressure was 913 MB, with maximum flight level winds of 135 knots. Rita is now a Cat 5 Hurricane based on central pressure, and a Cat.4 Hurricane based on wind velocity.
Water-vapor satellite imagery indicates that Rita appears to be overcoming the wind sheer of this morning. The Hurricane’s structure again looks very impressive.

…A near worse case scenario appears to be developing for the Gulf Coast…

All “good” computer models have come into very tight agreement the next 48-hours, showing Rita passing 200 miles Southwest of New Orleans late Thursday and then onshore on the Upper Texas or Southwest Louisiana Coast sunrise Saturday.

NHC tracks are basically “shadowing” the powerful GFDL Hurricane Model. That’s a great idea, as this model has a virtual “lock” on Rita’s track.

Rita will pass close enough to produce gale force winds from the Southeast, then South across the New Orleans area tomorrow and Saturday. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is also likely in the New Orleans area.

The Houston/Galveston -- Lake Charles/Cameron, Louisiana, areas should bear the brunt of Rita. All these areas are considered “high risk“ to a Major Hurricane like Rita.

Since we are now reasonably confident about Rita’s track…the only remaining question is… how strong will Rita be at landfall?

Thanks to our record September Heat Wave…the shallow water temperatures just off the Texas/Southwest Louisiana Coast are 87/88 degrees. That’s hot. So, the only possible reason that Rita might weaken is wind sheer. Unfortunately, that IS NOT predictable with any skill.

Look for a Strong Category 3/Category 4 Hurricane at landfall.

Tags: Gulf Coast, Hurricane Rita