Report 1 PM CDT: Northeast Yucatan Taking A Horrific Pounding

Satellite animation shows that extremely dangerous Cat. 4 Hurricane Wilma has slowed its Northwest motion to only 4 MPH. The big eye is still over Cozumel Island.

The 12Z Global GFS model run is in. This is the primary forecast model used by the National Weather Service. Most Hurricane forecast models are derived from its initialization. Finally, we are getting good continuity.

The GFS tracks Wilma ashore across the extreme Northeast Yucatan around 8pm EDT tonight. It reemerges The Hurricane into the extreme Southern Gulf around 8pm Saturday night. That’s only 24-hours over the flat Peninsula surrounded by water.

Yucatan land interaction is the “whole key” for South Florida. Should Wilma just skirt the coast, or remain over land for a lesser period of time…we would still have a strong Hurricane to deal with.

The GFS accelerates Wilma to about 150 miles East of the Florida Keys by sunrise Monday. It then takes the Hurricane rapidly into extreme South Florida by midday Monday.

If Wilma lingers over the Yucatan for less than 24-hours…look for a Category 2 “significant” Hurricane to strike South Florida and the Keys.

Again, the track of Wilma the next 12 to 24 hours will determine its strength in Florida.

Topics: News, Gulf Coast, Hurricane, Wilma, Florida, Katrina