Wire: US Military Report Warns 'Sudden Collapse' of Mexico Possible

News in Balance:

WASHINGTON. Jan. 14, 2009 -- Writing in an article published by the El Paso Times, reporter Diana Washington Valdez says that Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM) on worldwide security threats.

USJFCOM's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

In an equally dangerous worst-case scenario, the report also noted consideration for the rapid collapse of Pakistan, which carries with it the threat of nuclear war.

"Some forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons. That “perfect storm” of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger with no guarantee they could gain control of the weapons and with the real possibility that a nuclear weapon might be used."

The U.S. military report, which also analyzed economic situations in other countries, also noted that China has increased its influence in places where oil fields are present.

USJFCOM is one of the U.S. Defense Department's nine combatant commands and has several key roles in transforming the U.S. military’s capabilities.

Headquartered in Norfolk, Va., the command oversees a force of more than 1.16 million dedicated men and women, spanning USJFCOM's service component commands and subordinate activities. The command is comprised of active and reserve personnel from each branch of the armed forces, civil servants and contract employees.

(Report from commercial media and U.S. Defense Department sources.)

Sources:
U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible
Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008) Report (pdf)

Related:
U.S. Joint Forces Command Web Site

UPDATE 1, 3:24 PM

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